Hu Wenming, chairman of the board: 2016 shipbuilding industry can recover

The hot summer, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding factory still busy, but this does not fade the hearts of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation Chairman Hu Wenming concerns: "2015 is the bottom, to 2016 to recovery."
Only from the figures, the first half of the ship group in the first half of the performance is not bad, the main economic indicators continue the success of the company in 2013, the company's success in the steady growth momentum, operating income grew 44.8%, profit is reached 1.55 times last year. System Engineering Research Institute, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding and other 11 units under the jurisdiction of revenue, profits double half.
However, due to the characteristics of the shipbuilding industry, the market operation of the ship is three years of rolling orders, which resulted in the performance of the delay of the performance.
"Price is high up in the second half of 2013, but the benefits of this batch of ship orders to 2016 years to appear, in 2015 to digest 2012, as the main body of cheap ship orders. Therefore, single ship companies will very difficult, this is the law dictates, so the 2008 financial crisis started to, you see our performance reports, in 2011 even reached the peak, but inside, we feel that the chill of winter." An interview with reporters, Hu Wenming case analysis.
The global shipping industry, shipbuilding industry overcapacity situation, to the beginning of the recovery of the market has a greater shadow.
Crisis is still in. The latest data from the China Shipbuilding Industry Association also confirms this point: the current, the problem of excess capacity in the global. The slow recovery of the world economy, Clarkson freight index is still in the $1 million to 1.5 million / day vulnerable area, the owners of the new ship, lack of motivation.
Market analysis, the next 2 to 3 years, the ship market demand is about 100000000 tons, while the ship's prosperity, the global shipbuilding capacity has reached more than 2 tons. In the boat city downturn, the shipyard is difficult to meet the background, although some capacity temporarily shelved, but not really out of the market, the contradiction between excess capacity and lack of demand is still very prominent, this pattern can not be fundamentally changed in the short term.
In the capacity, capacity, double excess of the superimposed role, the global new ship orders from 2007 to 273000000 tons of the peak fell sharply to 2009's 57500000 tons, in 2012 continued to fall to 45500000 tons of load.
Secret: China is the world's first shipbuilding country, but far from a shipbuilding power. The gap is not only in high technology content high added value, but also the management level of the gap, the focus is reflected in the shipbuilding efficiency.
Hu Wenming crisis facing the shipbuilding group in 2012 is summarized as: "structural adjustment" of the "deadlock", "protection ship" of "crisis", "orders" of the "dilemma" and "steady growth" of the "Insurance Bureau."
How to break a bureau? How to reduce or balance the risk of the industry cycle? How in the downturn trend in head start? In a sense, it is not only the problem of the Chinese shipping group should be deep thinking, Chinese entrepreneurs need a broader perspective, to re-examine the role of China's manufacturing industry in the global industrial chain.
The most difficult moment
There are peaks and troughs, the economic cycle can not be avoided.
Since the financial crisis, the global shipping market has entered a deep adjustment period, the new ship orders and prices fell sharply, the effective demand is serious shortage, the domestic and foreign shipbuilding capacity serious excess of contradictions.
Encouraging for the industry since the second half of 2013, the shipping market appeared a small spring, BDI index rebounded, to December 2013, BDI index back to 2300 points above. But then rebound is halted, the BDI index is still hovering in the range of 700 points, compared with the peak in 2007, nearly 12000 points, can be described as "Binghuoliangzhongtian."
The continued downturn in the shipping industry has caused negative sentiment in the shipbuilding industry. Although Clark loose new ship price index consecutive 12 months continued to rise, to 2014 may monthly report to 140 points, but this year rose during the first half of the year generally only around 5%, especially in June compared with may, the rally blocked, part of the ship price declined, compared with a peak of 191 points can be said that the current price of ship is still in line costs around.
China Shipbuilding Industry Association also released in the end of 7 the report pointed out: profitability difficult, difficult to ship, financing difficulties, the transformation is difficult to remain a number of outstanding issues facing enterprises. In Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. chairman Huang Yongxi in an interview, also got a similar answer.
Among them, the profit is difficult because of the 2012 and 2013 in the first half of the orders for the micro margin or zero margin, there are a lot of products for the negative margin, so the overall situation is in a loss, then it is because the world economy continues to slow recovery trend, double excess Fundamentals did not change, resulting in the beginning of May this year, the market has been showing a clear downward trend, from 2015 to see the situation is still not optimistic.
In addition to the above two problems, the Huang Yongxi comparison headache is difficult to make: "in 2013, the global turnover of the new ship 150556000, 2300 tons of load, the load tonnage increased by 194.5%, more than the size of the transaction in 2010. 2013 a large part of the order will be delivered in 2015, and therefore, we expect that in 2015 will usher in a small peak of the ship." Huang told the ship that if the shipping rate in 2015 continued to remain low, the shipbuilding companies are likely to encounter difficulties in making the ship.